Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  36.2  41.2  38.4  27.3  24.7  25.1  34.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        144.3 144.3 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 139.6 139.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   136.0 125.0 119.0 120.0 139.0 114.0  60.0  39.0 VF  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        5.6%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        9.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       35.1%        6.5%       20.8%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%        4.6%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       60.5%       25.7%       43.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 WP952026 260307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  36.2  41.2  38.4  27.3  24.7  25.1  34.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%