Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.8  31.5  34.2  24.2  23.9  24.2  28.1  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  82.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        142.0 142.0 139.6 139.6 137.3 132.9 130.7 130.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 129.0 122.0 137.0 128.0  94.0  86.0  92.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  67.0  58.0  60.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       10.5%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       18.8%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       45.4%        9.7%       27.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%        8.7%       16.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       35.6%       49.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP952026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.8  31.5  34.2  24.2  23.9  24.2  28.1  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  67.0  58.0  60.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%