Rapid Intensification Guidance WP952026 260307 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.70 140.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 33.2 39.1 37.7 33.8 28.8 31.1 41.2 N U U U U N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 81.0 82.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 139.6 139.6 137.3 137.3 137.3 130.7 130.7 130.7 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 135.0 129.0 135.0 144.0 107.0 82.0 72.0 82.0 VF F VF VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 72.0 68.0 66.0 61.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 F N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 13.8% 9.7% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 4.3% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 3.6% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 22.2% 12.9% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 6.8% 4.0% 55kt / 48h 39.7% 19.3% 29.5% 70kt / 48h 19.3% 8.3% 13.8% 65kt / 72h 57.8% 24.8% 41.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.18 WP952026 260307 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.70 140.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 33.2 39.1 37.7 33.8 28.8 31.1 41.2 N F F F F N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 72.0 68.0 66.0 61.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 U N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%