Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.10    177.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.8  32.6  30.7  28.5  25.3  28.2  31.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 115.0 118.0 118.0 109.0 101.0  93.0  92.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 149.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   171.0 138.0 104.0  94.0  97.0  60.0  38.0  37.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       18.2%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.1%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       31.8%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       10.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       19.8%       30.8%
 70kt / 48h       26.4%       17.9%       22.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       55.2%       58.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP952026 260624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.10    177.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.8  32.6  30.7  28.5  25.3  28.2  31.7  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%