Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  25.0  27.5  28.5  29.5  25.4  28.4  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  43.0  23.0   5.0   2.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  78.0  67.0  68.0  73.0  68.0  80.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -10.0 -15.0 -17.0 -18.0  -9.0 -14.0 -11.0  F  F VF VF VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.8%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       14.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        7.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        6.1%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       23.3%       33.8%       28.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP952026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  25.0  27.5  28.5  29.5  25.4  28.4  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -10.0 -15.0 -17.0 -18.0  -9.0 -14.0 -11.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%