Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP962026 260310 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    148.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  28.5  32.9  31.1  34.8  41.8  45.3  43.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  48.0  38.0  34.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        126.5 124.4 124.4 120.5 118.5 113.0 113.0 111.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0   8.0  12.0  15.0  16.0   5.0 -20.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  69.0  69.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  71.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  12.0   3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        0.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 WP962026 260310 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    148.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  28.5  32.9  31.1  34.8  41.8  45.3  43.8  N  N  F  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  69.0  69.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  71.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  12.0   3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%