Rapid Intensification Guidance WP972026 260708 12UTC Storm Located at : 5.20 161.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 37.9 40.2 42.3 54.6 49.0 50.4 46.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 136.0 138.0 144.0 143.0 130.0 134.0 141.0 143.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 85.0 122.0 118.0 108.0 83.0 64.0 52.0 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 75.0 78.0 79.0 F F F N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 5.5% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 6.2% 3.9% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 34.2% 1.8% 18.0% 70kt / 48h 14.8% 1.2% 8.0% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 9.6% 35.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP972026 260708 12UTC Storm Located at : 5.20 161.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 37.9 40.2 42.3 54.6 49.0 50.4 46.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 75.0 78.0 79.0 U U U N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%