Rapid Intensification Guidance WP972026 260708 18UTC Storm Located at : 3.80 161.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.80 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 36.8 35.2 30.4 29.3 31.1 33.5 42.0 U U U N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 146.0 147.0 149.0 148.0 129.0 131.0 132.0 133.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 112.0 103.0 85.0 75.0 87.0 58.0 84.0 F F F F N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 78.0 80.0 83.0 F F F N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 4.8% 10.2% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 7.7% 19.2% 13.5% 55kt / 36h 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 55kt / 48h 41.8% 10.4% 26.1% 70kt / 48h 26.1% 8.9% 17.5% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 44.5% 53.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 WP972026 260708 18UTC Storm Located at : 3.80 161.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 36.8 35.2 30.4 29.3 31.1 33.5 42.0 F F F N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 78.0 80.0 83.0 U U U N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%