Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP972026 260709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      2.70    160.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.7  33.1  30.5  30.9  36.0  40.8  46.2  52.7  U  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  149.0 152.0 153.0 149.0 126.0 113.0 116.0 114.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  80.0  69.0  77.0  88.0  91.0  91.0  90.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       12.9%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       20.8%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        5.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.2%        8.9%       29.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%        7.6%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       28.2%       45.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP972026 260709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      2.70    160.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.7  33.1  30.5  30.9  36.0  40.8  46.2  52.7  F  F  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%