Rapid Intensification Guidance WP972026 260709 06UTC Storm Located at : 3.10 159.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 41.0 43.5 53.9 50.4 59.2 33.5 24.3 U VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 149.0 152.0 154.0 149.0 125.0 112.0 116.0 112.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 122.0 127.0 130.0 117.0 47.0 111.0 66.0 28.0 F F F F N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 73.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 84.0 82.0 F F N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 4.0% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 3.7% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 22.2% 0.9% 11.5% 70kt / 48h 7.5% 0.5% 4.0% 65kt / 72h 58.8% 11.1% 34.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 WP972026 260709 06UTC Storm Located at : 3.10 159.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 41.0 43.5 53.9 50.4 59.2 33.5 24.3 F VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 73.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 84.0 82.0 U U N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%