Rapid Intensification Guidance WP972026 260709 12UTC Storm Located at : 3.30 159.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 33.6 35.7 38.1 37.8 32.8 36.9 35.8 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 146.0 149.0 143.0 126.0 111.0 120.0 118.0 118.0 VF VF VF F F F F F Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 127.0 139.0 130.0 112.0 95.0 94.0 103.0 107.0 F VF F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 80.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 5.9% 11.3% 8.6% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 6.1% 16.4% 11.3% 55kt / 36h 2.7% 3.5% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 49.3% 7.8% 28.5% 70kt / 48h 25.1% 6.6% 15.9% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 41.5% 52.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP972026 260709 12UTC Storm Located at : 3.30 159.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 33.6 35.7 38.1 37.8 32.8 36.9 35.8 N F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 80.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%