Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP972026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  34.4  30.2  31.9  38.8  28.9  32.2  22.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  79.0  80.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  87.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  58.0  56.0  51.0 104.0  80.0  92.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -15.0 -16.0 -13.0 -15.0 -16.0 -15.0  -8.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       11.0%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       15.0%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.4%        8.2%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        7.0%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       34.5%       38.6%       36.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP972026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  34.4  30.2  31.9  38.8  28.9  32.2  22.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -15.0 -16.0 -13.0 -15.0 -16.0 -15.0  -8.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%