Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP972026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  17.6  19.5  29.6  27.4  45.0  51.6  44.5  N  F  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0   7.0   9.0  11.0  19.0  32.0  29.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  71.0  85.0  92.0 114.0  65.0  68.0  25.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  80.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   6.0  13.0  33.0  25.0  16.0  N  F  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       24.2%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%       10.3%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        9.7%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       32.7%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%       14.2%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%       10.9%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        6.5%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        5.8%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP972026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  17.6  19.5  29.6  27.4  45.0  51.6  44.5  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  80.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   6.0  13.0  33.0  25.0  16.0  N  U  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%