Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP972026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  30.9  32.8  33.4  19.3  19.2  39.9  42.7  N  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  31.0  20.0  34.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  65.0  51.0  84.0 103.0  83.0  81.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  85.0  80.0  83.0  79.0  71.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -15.0  -8.0   8.0  18.0   4.0   0.0  F  F VF  F  U VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.3%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        5.6%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        9.0%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP972026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  30.9  32.8  33.4  19.3  19.2  39.9  42.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  85.0  80.0  83.0  79.0  71.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -15.0  -8.0   8.0  18.0   4.0   0.0  U  U VU  U  F VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%