Rapid Intensification Guidance WP982026 260519 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 128.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.5 50.1 55.4 47.0 45.7 34.4 48.9 76.3 VU VU VU VU VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.4 75.5 69.8 59.1 49.7 46.4 37.2 30.9 N U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 -7.0 21.0 79.0 24.0 66.0 80.0 35.0 VU U U N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 52.0 55.0 62.0 70.0 70.0 66.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 15.0 16.0 13.0 24.0 34.0 -4.0 -36.0 U U U U VU VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.44 WP982026 260519 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 128.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.