Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022027 261020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.50     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  18.7  18.7  20.0  20.0  20.4  17.0  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  62.0  48.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  84.6  71.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   203.0 184.0 160.0 147.0 123.0 106.0  79.0  78.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        9.5%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       49.8%       70.7%       60.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       57.5%       38.9%
 35kt / 24h       20.2%       57.5%       38.8%
 40kt / 24h       20.2%       54.1%       37.2%
 45kt / 36h       39.1%       75.1%       57.1%
 55kt / 36h       19.0%       55.9%       37.4%
 55kt / 48h       44.0%       62.7%       53.3%
 70kt / 48h       26.8%       54.0%       40.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       54.3%       58.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH022027 261020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.50     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  18.7  18.7  20.0  20.0  20.4  17.0  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%