Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022027 261020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  13.5  17.2  21.5  18.7  19.3  22.4  22.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  35.0  30.0  25.0  17.0  15.0  21.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0  52.7  68.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 134.0 136.0 152.0 131.0 111.0  69.0  70.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%       12.5%       11.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       29.0%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       15.3%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       14.8%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.7%       12.6%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       49.7%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h       10.1%       28.7%       19.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.0%       25.1%       36.5%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       26.8%       26.0%
 65kt / 72h       42.6%       35.1%       38.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH022027 261020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  13.5  17.2  21.5  18.7  19.3  22.4  22.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%