Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022027 261020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.10     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  20.0  23.9  25.0  27.9  25.8  25.8  24.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  46.0  50.0  55.0  61.0  59.0  39.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  96.0 104.0 128.0 105.0  69.0  23.0 -21.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        7.3%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       47.9%       37.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       30.7%       22.1%
 35kt / 24h       12.8%       30.7%       21.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.8%       30.3%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       44.0%       33.4%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       21.2%       15.3%
 55kt / 48h       43.2%       28.3%       35.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.4%       16.7%       19.5%
 65kt / 72h       37.1%       19.2%       28.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 SH022027 261020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.10     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  20.0  23.9  25.0  27.9  25.8  25.8  24.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%