Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022027 261021 00UTC Storm Located at : -5.40 52.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 16.5 16.1 14.4 16.7 14.6 15.9 18.6 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 54.0 60.0 62.0 49.0 23.0 12.0 9.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 95.5 76.1 101.5 89.8 N N N N N U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 108.0 126.0 125.0 116.0 95.0 58.0 40.0 56.0 F F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 16.5% 13.4% 25kt / 24h 52.9% 73.5% 63.2% 30kt / 24h 30.0% 65.8% 47.9% 35kt / 24h 28.5% 65.8% 47.1% 40kt / 24h 28.5% 65.1% 46.8% 45kt / 36h 41.3% 70.4% 55.8% 55kt / 36h 24.9% 52.5% 38.7% 55kt / 48h 45.4% 37.3% 41.3% 70kt / 48h 26.7% 34.4% 30.5% 65kt / 72h 47.1% 32.5% 39.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 SH022027 261021 00UTC Storm Located at : -5.40 52.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 16.5 16.1 14.4 16.7 14.6 15.9 18.6 U N U U N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 N F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%