Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022027 261021 06UTC Storm Located at : -5.30 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 24.2 22.2 25.4 28.6 28.0 30.6 29.1 N N N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 43.0 45.0 48.0 57.0 56.0 10.0 8.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.8 89.8 86.2 43.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 87.0 102.0 96.0 84.0 54.0 15.0 -35.0 -28.0 F F F N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 59.0 57.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 45.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 25kt / 24h 5.0% 9.0% 7.0% 30kt / 24h 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 9.1% 6.4% 55kt / 36h 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 26.6% 11.3% 18.9% 70kt / 48h 11.3% 1.6% 6.4% 65kt / 72h 2.3% 1.1% 1.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 SH022027 261021 06UTC Storm Located at : -5.30 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.