Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022027 261021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.70     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  18.4  20.0  23.8  25.2  18.6  22.6  16.7  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  50.0  25.0  11.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  10.1  31.6  66.5  62.2  27.6  84.8  26.2  N VU VU  U  U VU  N VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  40.0  37.0  38.0  61.0  45.0  34.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        2.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        4.9%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.8%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        9.2%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        3.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.16

 SH022027 261021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.70     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.