Hurricane Beryl's Environment and Convective Activity
Your Task
Using the environmental and convective information from the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product and NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid (RIPA) on 27–29 June 2024, what conditions are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis and rapid intensification this period?
- Sea surface temperatures
- Middle tropospheric moisture
- Vertical wind shear
- Vertical instability
- Vorticity
- Satellite-based convective activity and organization
The Tools
Under "The Data", you will find several NESDIS datasets and products to use to access the favorability of the environment and convective activity for genesis and rapid intensification.
TCFP Guidance Product 2D Input Parameters
- Shows real time, climatology, and anomaly input parameters plots over the Atlantic
- Helps to access necessary but not sufficient conditions for genesis and rapid intensification
- Can provide insight into why a season is behaving abnormally
Description of parameters
- 850 hPa Relative Vorticity — Indicates 0–1000 km rotation from active storms or waves; need some spin for genesis.
- Vertical Wind Shear — 0–500 km column shear metric; low shear preferable to maintain convection.
- Vertical Instability — 200–800 km equivalent potential temperature metric; low values hinder development.
- 850 hPa Divergence — Indicates 0–1000 km divergence; some convergence useful for genesis.
- MSLP — 200–800 km pressure; shows strength of the subtropical ridge.
- Mid-level relative humidity — 200–800 km 700–500 hPa relative humidity; shows whether dry air might impact storm in presence of shear.
- Sea surface temperature — energy source; storms need waters greater than 26 °C to develop and sustain intensity.
TCFP Guidance Product Time Series
- Provides a time series of parameters within subbasins (shown in the diagram below). On the time series, you'll see
- 6 hourly, current-season values in blue dots with 2-week average in the blue line.
- Climatology represented as the 10/90th percentile (light gray shading), 30/70the percentile (medium gray shading) and 50th percentile (dark gray line)
- The time series helps assess current condition favorability relative to active parts of the season (e.g., September)
RIPA
- Example of several traditional and modern machine learning models
- Uses azimuthally averaged metrics (like TCFP) to generate a probabalistic forecast (> 40% means rapid intensification likely)
- Provides text output with environmental favorability
- U - Unfavorable; N - Neutral, F - Favorable; V - Very Favorable/Unfavorable
Longwave Infrared Window Channel Imagery and Derived Motion Winds
Longwave Infrared Window Channel Imagery aids with determining convective activity and organization. The Derived Motion Winds (DMW) can show low level winds and upper-level divergence. These data help to estimate development level and intensity when other data is unavailable.
- Step through images by
- Dragging the circle on the bar
- Clicking the , , or buttons
- Use the ←, →, or Spacebar
- Zooming in
- or to zoom in
- , , or to reset
The Data
TCFP Guidance Product 2D Input Parameters
Input Parameters
Real-Time
Climatological
Anomaly
850 hPa Relative Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
0-24h
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
0-24h
Vertical Instability (°C)
0-24h
850 hPa Hor. Div. (x10-6 s-1)
0-24h
MSLP (hPa)
0-24h
Relative Humidity (%)
0-24h
SST (°C)
0-24h
TCFP Guidance Product Time Series
Subbasin
850 hPa Relative Vorticity
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear
Vertical Instability
850 hPa Divergence
MSLP
SST
Mid-level Relative Humidity
Tropical Atlantic
Caribbean
Gulf of Mexico
RIPA
Rapid Intensification Guidance
AL022024 240629 00UTC
Storm Located at : 9.20 42.70
Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.
Initial Conditions:
Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U)
INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F
12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N
CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F
CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U
CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N
IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F
TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F
Forecast Conditions:
Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U)
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 14.5 14.1 12.4 9.5 9.6 12.6 14.9 F F F F F F F F
Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 69.0 55.0 40.0 29.0 46.0 27.0 37.0 U N N N U N U U
Potential [kt] 107.4 109.4 107.4 111.5 111.5 117.9 120.1 120.1 N N N N N N N N
200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 44.0 45.0 24.0 65.0 64.0 32.0 59.0 N N N U N N N N
Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.0 66.0 63.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N
T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 6.0 5.0 F F F F F F N N
Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS
20kt / 12h 1.7% 2.8% 2.2%
25kt / 24h 6.2% 19.0% 12.6%
30kt / 24h 3.4% 9.0% 6.2%
35kt / 24h 2.8% 7.8% 5.3%
40kt / 24h 2.8% 7.8% 5.3%
45kt / 36h 9.7% 38.6% 24.2%
55kt / 36h 0.0% 20.3% 10.2%
55kt / 48h 29.5% 24.8% 27.1%
70kt / 48h 24.8% 24.0% 24.4%
65kt / 72h 36.4% 40.4% 38.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
Convective Decapatation Guidance
For SSTs greater than 27.5C
Current sst along the future track = 27.46
AL022024 240629 00UTC
Storm Located at : 9.20 42.70
Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.
Longwave Infrared Window Channel Imagery and Derived Motion Winds
Real Time Genesis Products
Disclaimer
The contents of this webpage do not necessarily reflect any position of the U.S. Government or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).