Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

TC Realtime

EP162025 - Hurricane PRISCILLA

Diagnostics

Model Diagnostic Plot

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 06:00

GEFS Model Diagnostic Plot

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 06:00

Ensemble Track Ellipses

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

Multi-model Track & Intensity Forecast Verification

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

AI Model Track Forecasts

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

AI Weather Model Forecast Verification

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

Machine-Learning Forecast Uncertainty Estimates

Consensus model track error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

NHC official forecast track error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 06:00

Consensus model intensity error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

NHC official forecast intensity error distributions

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 06:00

Consensus model probability of a category 1-5 hurricane

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

Probability of a category 1-5 hurricane from NHC forecast error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 06:00

Probability of rapid intensification from consensus model error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

Probability of rapid intensification from NHC forecast error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 06:00

Global Models

GFS Model Data

GFS Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

GFS 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

GFS 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

GFS Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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GFS Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 06:00

ECMWF Model Data

ECMF Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 00:00

ECMF 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 00:00

ECMF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 00:00

ECMF Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 06:00

Hurricane Models

HFSA Model Data

HFSA Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSA 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSA 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSA Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00


HFSB Model Data

HFSB Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSB 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSB 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HFSB Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00


HWRF Model Data

HWRF Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HWRF 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HWRF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HWRF Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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HWRF Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

HMON Model Data

HMON Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HMON 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HMON 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 12:00

HMON Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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HMON Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-10 18:00

CTCX

Artificial Intelligence Models

ECMWF AIFS Model Data

ECMWF AIFS Wind

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 00:00

ECMWF AIFS Vort

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Time of This Image: 2025-10-11 00:00