Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

TC Realtime

EP052024 - Tropical Storm EMILIA

Diagnostics

Model Diagnostic Plot

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-09 12:00

GEFS Model Diagnostic Plot

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-09 00:00

Ensemble Track Ellipses

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-08 18:00

Multi-model Track & Intensity Forecast Verification

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Machine-Learning Forecast Uncertainty Estimates

Consensus model track error distribution

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-08 18:00

NHC official forecast track error distribution

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Consensus model intensity error distribution

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NHC official forecast intensity error distributions

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Consensus model probability of a category 1-5 hurricane

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Probability of a category 1-5 hurricane from NHC forecast error distribution

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Probability of rapid intensification from consensus model error distribution

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Probability of rapid intensification from NHC forecast error distribution

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Global Models

GFS Model Data

GFS Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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GFS 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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GFS 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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GFS Simulated Infrared Brightness Temperature

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GFS Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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GFS Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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ECMWF Model Data

ECMF Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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ECMF 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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ECMF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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ECMF Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Hurricane Models

HFSA Model Data

HFSA Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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HFSA 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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HFSA 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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HFSA Simulated Infrared Brightness Temperature

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HFSA Simulated Microwave Brightness Temperature

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HFSB Model Data

HFSB Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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HFSB 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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HFSB 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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HFSB Simulated Infrared Brightness Temperature

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HFSB Simulated Microwave Brightness Temperature

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HWRF Model Data

HWRF Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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HWRF 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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HWRF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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HWRF Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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HWRF Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-09 00:00

HMON Model Data

HMON Precipitation & Sea Surface Temperature

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-08 18:00

HMON 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-08 18:00

HMON 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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HMON Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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HMON Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-09 00:00

CTCX

CTCX Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs

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CTCX Diagnostic Verification - Intensity, 850-200 mb Shear, Sea Surface Temperature, and 700-500 mb Relative Humidity

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Artificial Intelligence Models

ECMWF AIFS Model Data

ECMWF AIFS Wind

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Time of This Image: 2024-08-09 12:00

ECMWF AIFS Vort

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